Wicked: For Good Aims to Cast a Spell on the Box Office This Thanksgiving; Aiming To Clear $100 Million In Opening Weekend

As the holiday season approaches, all eyes in the film industry are turning to Universal’s Wicked: For Good, the highly anticipated sequel to last year’s blockbuster musical. With its release set for November 21, the film is poised to deliver a much-needed jolt to the end-of-year box office, carrying the hopes of exhibitors for a strong Thanksgiving turnout. Early projections suggest the film is on track to cast a powerful spell on audiences, with expectations for a magical opening weekend.

Wicked: For Good: Defying Box Office Gravity

Current tracking places Wicked: For Good on a path to open in the impressive range of $112 million to $115 million. This forecast mirrors the spectacular debut of its predecessor, Wicked, which launched with $112.5 million during the same pre-Thanksgiving window last year. The first film went on to break records, becoming the highest-grossing movie based on a Broadway musical with a domestic total of $473.2 million and a global haul of $756.4 million. If the sequel can match this performance, it will provide a significant boost to the holiday movie season.

The first film, directed by Jon M. Chu, was a critical and commercial triumph, earning an “A” CinemaScore from audiences and garnering two Academy Awards. The follow-up aims to continue that success, bringing back the beloved characters of Elphaba and Glinda for the next chapter of their story.

A Powerful Appeal to Key Demographics

A key factor in the optimistic projections for Wicked: For Good is its immense popularity with female audiences. The first film drew a staggering 72% female crowd, which gave it an 80% “definite recommend” on PostTrak surveys. Early data for the sequel indicates that its appeal is just as strong, with first-choice interest among women both over and under 25 tracking ahead of the original. This powerful demographic appeal is a crucial ingredient for a holiday blockbuster, as it often drives group outings and family viewings.

Unaided awareness for Wicked: For Good—a metric where people name a movie they want to see without being prompted—is on par with the first film, signaling that anticipation is just as high. While the first movie clocked in at 2 hours and 40 minutes, the sequel is slightly leaner with a runtime of 2 hours and 18 minutes, which could encourage more repeat viewings. As the industry looks for a late-year surge, Wicked: For Good has all the elements to be the box office hero that exhibitors are hoping for this Thanksgiving.